San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Referee Federico La Penna, Italy · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
AC Milan vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.59 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Milan win
74.6% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AC Milan home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lecce away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.9%
- 1–013.4%
- 3–010.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.3% vs market 53.9%, edge +6.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.9% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +6.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 91.0% | 91.6% | 1.09 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.80 | 25.1% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.9% | 17.0% | 5.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.25 | 74.6% | 74.6% | 1.34 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.90 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 83.8% | 83.0% | 1.20 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 46.1% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -6.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AC Milan
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Lecce
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2026-01-18T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2025-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Lecce (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2025-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-2 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2024-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2024-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 3-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2023-11-11T14:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-2 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2023-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2023-01-14T17:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-2 Lecce (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Milan win, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.