Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara · Referee M. Frasynyak · Analysis updated 08:08 UTC
AC Milan W vs Como 1907 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for AC Milan W and 1.13 for Como 1907 W, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives AC Milan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Milan W win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AC Milan W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for AC Milan W and 1.13 for Como 1907 W, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
AC Milan W
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ternana W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 0-1 (L)
Como 1907 W
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus W · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lazio W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sassuolo W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Fiorentina W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Roma W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Parma W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Milan W win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.