· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Academica Balș vs Petrolul Hartiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Academica Balș and 0.77 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Academica Balș the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Academica Balș win
81.8% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Academica Balș to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Academica Balș and 0.77 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 82% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.8%
Recent form
Academica Balș
Petrolul Hartiesti
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CS U Craiova II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Balș · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Academica Balș win, at 81.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.