Académica do Lobito vs 1º de Maio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Académica do Lobito and 1.48 for 1º de Maio, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives 1º de Maio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

1º de Maio win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.67 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Académica do Lobito home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1º de Maio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Maio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 17% / 26% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.67 goals for Académica do Lobito and 1.48 for 1º de Maio, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Académica do Lobito win17%

Draw26%

1º de Maio win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–117.3%
0–212.8%
0–011.7%
1–111.5%
1–28.5%

Recent form

Académica do Lobito

2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)

1º de Maio

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
4	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	4	1	1	5	13
5	Interclube	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	São Salvador	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	0	3	3	-5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 1º de Maio win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.