Académica do Lobito vs CD Lunda-Sul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Académica do Lobito and 0.77 for CD Lunda-Sul, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Académica do Lobito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Académica do Lobito win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Académica do Lobito home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Lunda-Sul away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Académica do Lobito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Académica do Lobito and 0.77 for CD Lunda-Sul, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Académica do Lobito win45%

Draw30%

CD Lunda-Sul win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–016.7%
0–014.2%
1–113.0%
0–111.0%
2–09.8%

Recent form

Académica do Lobito

2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)

CD Lunda-Sul

2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Maio · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagrada Esperança · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo da Caála · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	Interclube	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	3	0	4	-5	9
9	São Salvador	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	0	3	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Académica do Lobito win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.