· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Académica do Lobito vs CD Lunda-Sul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.51 expected goals for Académica do Lobito and 1.04 for CD Lunda-Sul, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives CD Lunda-Sul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
CD Lunda-Sul win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
0.51 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Académica do Lobito home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Lunda-Sul away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Lunda-Sul to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 18% / 34% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.51 goals for Académica do Lobito and 1.04 for CD Lunda-Sul, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.0%
- 0–021.1%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.8%
Recent form
Académica do Lobito
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)
CD Lunda-Sul
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Maio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagrada Esperança · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo da Caála · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Lunda-Sul win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.