· Analysis updated 13:05 UTC
Academica Recea vs Minaur Baia Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Academica Recea and 2.41 for Minaur Baia Mare, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Minaur Baia Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Minaur Baia Mare win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 2.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Academica Recea home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Minaur Baia Mare away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minaur Baia Mare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Academica Recea and 2.41 for Minaur Baia Mare, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.4%
- 1–37.2%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Academica Recea
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Crişul Sântandrei · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sighetu Marmaţiei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Tășnad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Transilvania Sport Academy · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Cluj · 2-6 (L)
Minaur Baia Mare
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Cluj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Dej · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crişul Sântandrei · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Recea · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 23 |
| 2 | Sănătatea Cluj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Crişul Sântandrei | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Academica Recea | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | SCM Zalău | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sânmartin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bihorul Beiuş | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Viitorul Cluj | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Unirea Tășnad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 11 | Unirea Dej | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minaur Baia Mare win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.