· Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Acambaro vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Acambaro and 1.33 for Gorilas de Juanacatlan, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Acambaro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Acambaro win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Acambaro home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gorilas de Juanacatlan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Acambaro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Acambaro and 1.33 for Gorilas de Juanacatlan, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Acambaro
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-4 (L)
Gorilas de Juanacatlan
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Heroes de Zaci 2 · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz 2 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Ayense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Lagunas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Internacional Laguna | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Acambaro win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.