· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Acatlan vs Ciervos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.67 expected goals for Acatlan and 1.26 for Ciervos, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Acatlan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Acatlan win
80.6% probability
Expected goals
3.67 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Acatlan home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ciervos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Acatlan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.67 goals for Acatlan and 1.26 for Ciervos, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.9%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–05.9%
- 4–05.4%
Recent form
Acatlan
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciervos · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Saltillo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Fresnillo · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Héroes de Zaci · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Santiago · 1-0 (W)
Ciervos
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Acatlan win, at 80.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.