The Wham Stadium · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Accrington ST vs Gillingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.41 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Gillingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Accrington ST home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gillingham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gillingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Accrington ST and 1.41 for Gillingham, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Accrington ST
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Salford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland U21 · 3-3 (D)
Gillingham
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.