The Wham Stadium · Referee S. Copeland · Analysis updated 02:15 UTC
Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.37 for Sunderland U21, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Accrington ST the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Accrington ST home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Accrington ST to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Accrington ST and 1.37 for Sunderland U21, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 43.3% vs market 31.8%, edge +11.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.90 | 31.8% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +11.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 60.9% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.5% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 36.2% | 36.0% | 2.78 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.7% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 68.2% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -11.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Accrington ST
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Salford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland U21 · 3-3 (D)
Sunderland U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Accrington ST 3-3 Sunderland U21 (EFL Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.