Acero vs Torrellano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Acero and 0.58 for Torrellano, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Acero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Acero win

61.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Acero home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrellano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Acero win62%

Draw25%

Torrellano win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–018.3%
2–014.4%
0–011.6%
1–110.5%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Acero

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrent · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atzeneta · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 1-1 (D)

Torrellano

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Vall de Uxó · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hércules II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Torrent · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · Acero 1-1 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z · Acero 0-1 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2023-11-12T11:00:00.000Z · Acero 0-2 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2023-01-22T16:00:00.000Z · Acero 2-1 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2022-09-18T09:30:00.000Z · Acero 0-0 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2022-02-12T17:00:00.000Z · Acero 1-0 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2021-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · Acero 1-1 Torrellano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villarreal III	8	7	0	1	8	21
2	Levante II	8	5	2	1	11	17
3	Vall de Uxó	7	3	4	0	6	13
4	Hércules II	7	3	3	1	3	12
5	Acero	8	2	5	1	2	11
6	Torrent	7	3	1	3	2	10
7	Eldense B	8	2	4	2	1	10
8	Crevillente	8	2	4	2	0	10
9	Roda	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	Atzeneta	7	1	5	1	0	8
11	Saguntino	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Buñol	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	SC Torrevieja	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Ontinyent 1931	7	2	1	4	-1	7
15	Torrellano	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Soneja	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Jove Español	7	1	3	3	-6	6
18	Utiel	7	0	3	4	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Acero win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.