Sportpark ICT Specialist · Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
ACV vs AFC Amsterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for ACV and 1.33 for AFC Amsterdam, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives ACV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
ACV win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ACV home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Amsterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ACV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for ACV and 1.33 for AFC Amsterdam, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
ACV
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs VV Scherpenzeel · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SVZW · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogeveen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 5-1 (W)
AFC Amsterdam
- 2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ACV win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.