· Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
AD Carmelita vs CS Uruguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for AD Carmelita and 0.78 for CS Uruguay, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives AD Carmelita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AD Carmelita win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Carmelita home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CS Uruguay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AD Carmelita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for AD Carmelita and 0.78 for CS Uruguay, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
AD Carmelita
- 2026-08-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalupe FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Ana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Uruguay · 2-2 (D)
CS Uruguay
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Ana · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariari Pococi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Carmelita · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AD Carmelita win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.