· Analysis updated 10:19 UTC
AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for AD Carmelita and 1.37 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives AD Carmelita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AD Carmelita win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Carmelita home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AD Carmelita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for AD Carmelita and 1.37 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
AD Carmelita
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Ana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Uruguay · 6-0 (W)
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
- 2026-09-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Ana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Uruguay · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter San Carlos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AD Carmelita win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.