· Analysis updated 13:57 UTC
AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC and 2.15 for Malaga, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Malaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malaga win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Ceuta FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 2.15 for Malaga, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
AD Ceuta FC
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)
Malaga
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malaga win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.