Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube · Referee S. Ais · Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.13 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Valladolid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.0% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Ceuta FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valladolid away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valladolid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.13 for Valladolid, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 58.0% vs market 48.0%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 58.0% | 1.72 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.8% | 70.2% | 1.42 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 39.1% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.0% | 31.0% | 3.23 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.8% | 60.8% | 1.64 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 29.8% | 3.36 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.3% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AD Ceuta FC
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)
Valladolid
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.