· Analysis updated 12:00 UTC
AD Cofutpa vs ADR Jicaral Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for AD Cofutpa and 1.81 for ADR Jicaral, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives ADR Jicaral the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ADR Jicaral win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Cofutpa home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADR Jicaral away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ADR Jicaral to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 23% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for AD Cofutpa and 1.81 for ADR Jicaral, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.30 | 39.4% | 42.0% | 2.38 | +2.6 |
| Match result | Home | 5.10 | 17.5% | 19.1% | 5.24 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 47.7% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 1.53 | 58.2% | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 77.5% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 52.3% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 24.4% | 22.9% | 4.37 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.09 | 83.1% | 81.0% | 1.23 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AD Cofutpa
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 0-3 (L)
ADR Jicaral
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Grecia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Quepos Cambute · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Cofutpa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ADR Jicaral win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.