· Analysis updated 17:59 UTC
AD Cofutpa vs Santa Cruz FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for AD Cofutpa and 1.25 for Santa Cruz FC, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives AD Cofutpa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AD Cofutpa win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Cofutpa home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AD Cofutpa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for AD Cofutpa and 1.25 for Santa Cruz FC, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
AD Cofutpa
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 0-3 (L)
Santa Cruz FC
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quepos Cambute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AD Cofutpa win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.