· Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for AD Marco 09 and 0.94 for Maia Lidador, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives AD Marco 09 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AD Marco 09 win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Marco 09 home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AD Marco 09 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for AD Marco 09 and 0.94 for Maia Lidador, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
AD Marco 09
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maia Lidador · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Guimaraes B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs São João Ver · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Régua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 2-0 (W)
Maia Lidador
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte da Barca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga B · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brito · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AD Marco 09 win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.