· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for AD Nogueirense and 2.50 for Mortágua, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Mortágua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mortágua win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Nogueirense home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mortágua away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mortágua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for AD Nogueirense and 2.50 for Mortágua, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
AD Nogueirense
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-1 (D)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-2 (L)
Mortágua
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mortágua win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.