· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for AD Nogueirense and 1.36 for Naval 1893, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Naval 1893 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Nogueirense home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naval 1893 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naval 1893 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for AD Nogueirense and 1.36 for Naval 1893, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
AD Nogueirense
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-1 (D)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-2 (L)
Naval 1893
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Nogueirense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.