Estadio Municipal de Los Prados · Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
AD Parla vs Móstoles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for AD Parla and 1.30 for Móstoles, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Móstoles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Parla home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Móstoles away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.7%
Recent form
AD Parla
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Galapagar · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcorcón II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcobendas Sport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tres Cantos · 3-4 (L)
Móstoles
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-29T09:30:00.000Z · AD Parla 1-1 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-11-16T10:45:00.000Z · AD Parla 1-3 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2024-04-21T09:30:00.000Z · AD Parla 1-2 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2023-12-03T11:00:00.000Z · AD Parla 2-2 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-01-31T10:30:00.000Z · AD Parla 0-1 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2020-11-01T11:00:00.000Z · AD Parla 1-1 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2020-03-01T11:00:00.000Z · AD Parla 0-2 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2019-10-13T09:30:00.000Z · AD Parla 2-2 Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.