· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
AD Sarchí vs ADR Jicaral Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for AD Sarchí and 1.20 for ADR Jicaral, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives ADR Jicaral the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.1% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Sarchí home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ADR Jicaral away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ADR Jicaral to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 27% / 30% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for AD Sarchí and 1.20 for ADR Jicaral, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
AD Sarchí
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ADR Jicaral · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Cofutpa · 2-1 (W)
ADR Jicaral
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Cofutpa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Sarchí · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Grecia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.