· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
AD Sarchí vs Municipal Grecia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for AD Sarchí and 1.10 for Municipal Grecia, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives AD Sarchí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AD Sarchí home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Municipal Grecia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AD Sarchí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for AD Sarchí and 1.10 for Municipal Grecia, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
AD Sarchí
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ADR Jicaral · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Cofutpa · 2-1 (W)
Municipal Grecia
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs ADR Jicaral · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Cofutpa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.