· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Adama Kenema vs Gamo Chencha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Adama Kenema and 0.39 for Gamo Chencha, a combined total of 1.43. That distribution gives Adama Kenema the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Adama Kenema win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Adama Kenema home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adama Kenema to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 35% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Adama Kenema and 0.39 for Gamo Chencha, a combined 1.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 17% and both teams to score at 21%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.9%
- 0–024.0%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Adama Kenema
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mebrat Hayl · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Awassa Kenema · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-28T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Welayta Dicha · 0-2 (L)
Gamo Chencha
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Mebrat Hayl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Adama Kenema win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.