Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.72 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Ümraniyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ümraniyespor win

49.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Adana Demirspor home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ümraniyespor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ümraniyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.72 for Ümraniyespor, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Adana Demirspor win27%

Draw24%

Ümraniyespor win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–29.6%
0–19.2%
0–27.9%
2–16.7%

Recent form

Adana Demirspor

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Somaspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hakkari Zapspor · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Menemen FK · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Erbaaspor · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Şanlıurfaspor · 1-1 (D)

Ümraniyespor

2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sivasspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bursaspor	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Kayserispor	12	8	3	1	17	27
3	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	Keçiörengücü	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Bodrum FK	12	4	5	3	4	17
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
11	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	2	6	4	-4	12
16	Pendikspor	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ümraniyespor win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.