· Analysis updated 17:31 UTC
Adelaide Cobras vs Salisbury United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Adelaide Cobras and 1.49 for Salisbury United, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Adelaide Cobras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salisbury United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adelaide Cobras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Adelaide Cobras and 1.49 for Salisbury United, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Adelaide Cobras
Salisbury United
- 2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Cobras · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs South Adelaide Panthers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Victory · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Eastern United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Modbury Jets · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia State League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -23 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -20 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -36 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.