Adelaide Olympic vs Salisbury United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Adelaide Olympic and 0.93 for Salisbury United, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Adelaide Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Adelaide Olympic win

74.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.66 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Adelaide Olympic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salisbury United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adelaide Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Adelaide Olympic and 0.93 for Salisbury United, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Adelaide Olympic win74%

Draw15%

Salisbury United win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–09.7%
2–19.1%
3–08.7%
3–18.1%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Adelaide Olympic

2026-09-05T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Modbury Jets · 0-6 (L)
2026-08-28T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Modbury Jets · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Victory · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Raiders · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cumberland United · 2-0 (W)

Salisbury United

2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Cobras · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs South Adelaide Panthers · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Victory · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-24T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Eastern United · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Modbury Jets · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

South Australia State League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide Raiders	22	15	2	5	30	47
2	Modbury Jets	22	13	5	4	26	44
3	Adelaide Olympic	22	14	1	7	17	43
4	Fulham United	22	11	4	7	11	37
5	Adelaide Blue Eagles	22	10	6	6	7	36
6	Adelaide Victory	22	11	3	8	6	36
7	Cumberland United	22	11	1	10	8	34
8	The Cove	22	7	5	10	-7	26
9	Eastern United	22	6	4	12	-19	22
10	Adelaide Cobras	22	6	2	14	-23	20
11	Salisbury United	22	5	2	15	-20	17
12	South Adelaide Panthers	22	4	3	15	-36	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Adelaide Olympic win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.