Coopers Stadium · Referee E. H. Mahfoodh A. · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Adelaide United vs Wofoo Tai Po Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Adelaide United and 0.61 for Wofoo Tai Po, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Adelaide United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Adelaide United win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Adelaide United home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adelaide United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Adelaide United and 0.61 for Wofoo Tai Po, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 41%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 59.0% vs market 47.0%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.0% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.7% | 24.6% | 4.07 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.0% | 91.7% | 1.09 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 75.3% | 75.4% | 1.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.05 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 6.13 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.3% | 83.7% | 1.19 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Adelaide United
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wofoo Tai Po · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-2 (L)
Wofoo Tai Po
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitchee · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Home United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kowloon City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs BC Rangers · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Kuwait | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nasaf | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Khalidiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Arkadag | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Muharraq | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gol Gohar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Taawon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al Faisaly | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Nahda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Viettel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Home United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Tampines Rovers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Kitchee | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Adelaide United win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.