BSFZ-Arena · Analysis updated 02:14 UTC
Admira Wacker vs Austria Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 2.54 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Austria Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria Vienna win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 2.54
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Admira Wacker home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Vienna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 18% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Admira Wacker and 2.54 for Austria Vienna, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–25.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.53 (model 67.2% vs market 60.1%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.53 | 60.1% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.70 | 35.1% | 35.9% | 2.79 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 17.9% | 18.1% | 5.52 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 17.9% | 17.8% | 5.62 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.40 | 64.1% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.4% | 82.1% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 82.4% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.30 | 39.9% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Admira Wacker
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)
Austria Vienna
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria Vienna win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.