Admira Wacker vs First Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.43 for First Vienna, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives First Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Admira Wacker home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
First Vienna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates First Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Admira Wacker and 1.43 for First Vienna, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Admira Wacker win32%

Draw26%

First Vienna win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.1%
1–28.8%
1–08.6%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Admira Wacker

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)

First Vienna

2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Wien II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Salzburg · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC BW Linz	9	7	1	1	19	22
2	First Vienna	9	7	1	1	10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	5	1	3	3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	5	1	3	4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	5	0	4	2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	4	2	3	2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	4	1	4	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	4	1	4	-2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	2	2	5	-7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	2	2	5	-8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	2	1	6	-11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	2	0	7	-7	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.