Motion Invest Arena · Referee Julian Weinberger, Austria · Analysis updated 09:22 UTC
Admira Wacker vs SV Kapfenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.30 for SV Kapfenberg, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Admira Wacker the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Admira Wacker win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Admira Wacker home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Kapfenberg away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Admira Wacker to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Admira Wacker and 1.30 for SV Kapfenberg, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Admira Wacker
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)
SV Kapfenberg
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs WSPG Wels · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Admira Wacker | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | SKU Amstetten | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Floridsdorfer AC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Voitsberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | SKN ST. Polten | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rapid Wien II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Admira Wacker win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.