· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
ADO '20 vs Hercules Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for ADO '20 and 1.71 for Hercules, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives ADO '20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ADO '20 win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ADO '20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hercules away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
ADO '20
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VV Scherpenzeel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs SVZW · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-4 (L)
Hercules
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hollandia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TEC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Nijkerk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ACV · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 3-1 Hercules (Derde Divisie)
- 2026-03-29T12:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 2-2 Hercules (Derde Divisie)
- 2025-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 1-0 Hercules (Derde Divisie)
- 2023-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 0-3 Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2022-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 3-1 Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 3-3 Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2021-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 4-2 Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2020-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · ADO '20 2-4 Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | ACV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Noordwijk | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Lisse | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | TEC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | GOES | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Dongen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Zwaluwen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Purmersteijn | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Gemert | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Blauw Geel | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Roosendaal | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Hercules | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Poortugaal | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | UNA | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Dovo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 14 | TOGB | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Eemdijk | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
| 15 | Vvsb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Staphorst | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Groene Ster | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | SVZW | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ADO '20 win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.