Bingoal Stadion · Referee Allard Lindhout, Netherlands · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.40 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Cambuur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cambuur win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ADO Den Haag home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–15.9%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2026-01-16T19:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-11-21T19:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 0-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-05-02T18:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 3-4 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-10-29T20:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-4 Cambuur (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-04-05T18:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 2-0 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-11-12T13:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2016-01-24T15:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 2-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2015-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambuur win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.