ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.08 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Heerenveen win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ADO Den Haag home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ADO Den Haag win26%

Draw21%

Heerenveen win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–19.0%
0–26.7%
2–26.5%
1–36.5%

Recent form

ADO Den Haag

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)

Heerenveen

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2021-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 0-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2020-11-28T19:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2020-02-22T18:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 2-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2019-11-03T15:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2019-03-09T18:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 2-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2018-09-29T16:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2018-04-17T18:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 0-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2017-08-26T17:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 1-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2017-01-14T17:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 0-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2016-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag 0-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heerenveen win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.