WerkTalent Stadion · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.80 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives ADO Den Haag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ADO Den Haag home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ADO Den Haag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.80 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.