ADO Den Haag vs Twente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.25 for Twente, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Twente win

71.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ADO Den Haag home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Twente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 11% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.25 for Twente, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

ADO Den Haag win11%

Draw18%

Twente win71%

Double chance 1X

29%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

0–212.6%
0–111.2%
0–39.5%
1–29.5%
1–18.4%

Recent form

ADO Den Haag

2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)

Twente

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.