ADO Den Haag W vs Heerenveen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for ADO Den Haag W and 3.03 for Heerenveen W, a combined total of 5.18. That distribution gives Heerenveen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heerenveen W win

56.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 3.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ADO Den Haag W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ADO Den Haag W win27%

Draw17%

Heerenveen W win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals75%

Both teams to score84%

Correct score

2–36.0%
2–26.0%
1–35.6%
1–25.6%
2–44.6%

Recent form

ADO Den Haag W

2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 1-7 (L)
2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 1-2 (L)

Heerenveen W

2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente W · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 2-2 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2026-02-01T15:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 1-4 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2025-09-21T14:45:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 2-2 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2025-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 0-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2024-09-28T14:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 3-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2024-04-14T10:15:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 0-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2023-10-08T10:15:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 2-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2023-03-03T18:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 5-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2022-11-25T18:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 3-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
2022-03-25T18:30:00.000Z · ADO Den Haag W 4-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)

Eredivisie Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Twente W	6	6	0	0	24	18
2	Ajax W	6	5	0	1	11	15
3	AZ W	6	4	0	2	-4	12
4	PSV/Eindhoven W	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Heerenveen W	6	2	1	3	-2	7
6	ADO Den Haag W	6	2	1	3	-10	7
7	PEC Zwolle W	6	2	0	4	-4	6
8	De Graafschap W	6	2	0	4	-5	6
9	Feyenoord W	6	2	0	4	-8	6
10	Utrecht W	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heerenveen W win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.