Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi · Analysis updated 16:26 UTC
Adriese vs Brian Lignano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Adriese and 2.08 for Brian Lignano, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Brian Lignano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brian Lignano win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Adriese home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brian Lignano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brian Lignano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 20% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Adriese and 2.08 for Brian Lignano, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–38.4%
Recent form
Adriese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Clodiense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Campodarsego · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvi Noale · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cjarlins Muzane · 0-2 (L)
Brian Lignano
- 2026-10-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cjarlins Muzane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luparense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvi Noale · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Sandona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Campodarsego | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Clodiense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bassano Virtus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | LME | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mestre | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Legnago Salus | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Conegliano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Obermais | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Calvi Noale | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Este | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Altavilla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Triestina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Virtus Bolzano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Schio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brian Lignano win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.