Estadio Union Tarma · Referee Sebastian Lozano, Peru · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
ADT vs Alianza Atletico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for ADT and 1.28 for Alianza Atletico, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives ADT the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ADT home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Atletico away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
ADT
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 0-2 (L)
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · ADT 1-1 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2026-02-27T20:00:00.000Z · ADT 0-0 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2025-09-26T18:15:00.000Z · ADT 1-0 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2025-05-04T20:30:00.000Z · ADT 0-2 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2024-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · ADT 0-1 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2024-04-28T19:30:00.000Z · ADT 2-1 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2023-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · ADT 1-0 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2023-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · ADT 1-1 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2022-09-10T18:15:00.000Z · ADT 2-2 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
- 2022-04-24T20:00:00.000Z · ADT 1-2 Alianza Atletico (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.