Ammochostos Stadium · Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
AE Zakakiou vs APEA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for AE Zakakiou and 1.30 for APEA, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives APEA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AE Zakakiou home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
APEA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APEA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for AE Zakakiou and 1.30 for APEA, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
AE Zakakiou
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Digenis Morphou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahironas / Onisilos · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Latsion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartakos Kitiou · 2-4 (L)
APEA
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartakos Kitiou · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Digenis Morphou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Doxa · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Latsion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.