Allwyn Arena · Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.34 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
85.1% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Athens FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Levadiakos away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–018.1%
- 3–015.4%
- 1–014.3%
- 4–09.8%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
Levadiakos
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T18:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2025-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2024-12-22T19:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2024-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 3-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2023-02-13T16:30:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 3-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2022-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2019-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 3-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2019-01-30T15:15:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2018-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2017-12-03T17:30:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Panetolikos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 85.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.