Allwyn Arena · Referee Georgios Kokkinos, Greece · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
AEK Athens FC vs OFI Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.53 for OFI, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
77.0% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Athens FC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OFI away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Athens FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.53 for OFI, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.7%
- 1–013.8%
- 3–011.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 63.1% vs market 55.7%, edge +7.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 63.1% | 1.58 | +7.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.4% | 92.9% | 1.08 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 77.0% | 77.0% | 1.30 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 15.9% | 15.9% | 6.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 14.08 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 84.9% | 84.1% | 1.19 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.8% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 36.9% | 2.71 | -7.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 5-0 (W)
OFI
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Kifisia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.