Allwyn Arena · Referee Vasilios Fitsas · Analysis updated 23:14 UTC
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.95 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
71.1% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Athens FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Panetolikos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
Panetolikos
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-14T15:30:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 5-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2025-11-02T19:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2025-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-1 Panetolikos (Cup)
- 2025-01-25T18:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2024-10-05T16:30:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 0-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2023-12-18T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-2 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2023-10-08T16:30:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 3-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2023-01-15T14:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 4-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2022-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 2-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2022-01-16T15:15:00.000Z · AEK Athens FC 1-2 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.