· Analysis updated 18:54 UTC
AEK Athens FC vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.75 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Athens FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Athens FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.75 for Samsunspor, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–18.7%
Recent form
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
Samsunspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.