AEK Arena · Analysis updated 09:21 UTC
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.37 for Apollon Limassol, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives AEK Larnaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AEK Larnaca win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Larnaca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Limassol away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Larnaca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.37 for Apollon Limassol, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
AEK Larnaca
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
Apollon Limassol
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Larnaca win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.