· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.49 for Nea Salamis, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives AEK Larnaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Larnaca win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Larnaca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nea Salamis away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Larnaca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.49 for Nea Salamis, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
AEK Larnaca
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 4-1 (W)
Nea Salamis
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Larnaca win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.