AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 2.15 for Omonia Aradippou, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives AEK Larnaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AEK Larnaca win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AEK Larnaca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Omonia Aradippou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AEK Larnaca win47%

Draw19%

Omonia Aradippou win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–26.9%
2–16.4%
3–25.8%
1–25.5%
3–15.4%

Recent form

AEK Larnaca

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 4-1 (W)

Omonia Aradippou

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-1 Omonia Aradippou (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-02-22T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-2 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
2025-03-09T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-2 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
2024-12-06T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
2020-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 4-0 Omonia Aradippou (Friendlies Clubs)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AEK Larnaca win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.