AEK Arena · Referee Theodoros Sofokleous · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 0.88 for Omonia Aradippou, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives AEK Larnaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Larnaca win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Larnaca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Omonia Aradippou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
AEK Larnaca
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 4-1 (W)
Omonia Aradippou
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-1 Omonia Aradippou (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-22T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-2 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
- 2025-03-09T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-2 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
- 2024-12-06T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou (1. Division)
- 2020-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 4-0 Omonia Aradippou (Friendlies Clubs)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Larnaca win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.